Why Narendra Modi will win 300 plus seats? Whether there is no Mahagathbandhan or there is Mahagathbandhan, Narendra Modi can extract 350 plus. An excellent scientific analysis based on hard empirical evidence.
Bhau is a veteran Marathi journalist of many years and a very perceptive political analyst. In 2013, right before the 2014 election, he had written a book “Modich ka?” which means “How is Modi?” At that time, he had predicted that Modi would get a full majority which everyone thought was impossible but the results proved otherwise. Now, he is back with a book “Punha Modich ka” i.e. “How Modi again?”.
The Analysis
He has done a detailed study of the political scenario, and written the book with lot of references to the past elections. With examples and political mind using social context and history, he developed this Modi story. That is; the first part of the book, and unbelievably the second part of the book is purely analyzed upon present situations with Pakistan and Indian soldiers in the minds of the people. Henceforth, the various permutations and combinations, and the numbers and prediction on the basis of his theory needs attention.
The Mahagathbandhan’s input
What I attempt here is to jot down some key points from his theories. He has predicted a seat count of 300+ for BJP only if there is no Mahagathbandhan (MGB) i.e. single opposition to Modi and 350+ if there is a MGB. Latter is bizarre but explanation will come later on.
The Seats Battle
Political parties put up candidates everywhere in elections like AAP did in 2014, AAP candidates were found all over the country. However, they only fight with full might and determination to win in a subset of total seats. By that, it means you fight with all effort, all resources and a possibility of winning the seats. These seats are where you come first or second.
BJP fought about 325 seats with full might by themselves in 2014 and allies fought another 60-70 more. They got 282 then.
Knowing that they had hit maximum in 2014 and Modi hype was expected while now Modi and Shah worked hard since last 4 years. And to increase coverage and they have added Bengal, Odisha, possibly Kerala, Haryana and North East to the kitty of seats where they will put all their strength.
This has increased their battle towards seats tally to 380-400. Allies would get another 50-60 which means the NDA will fight for about 450+ seats through the country with full strength.
This number was before the alliances in Tamil Nadu and Maha were sealed but the numbers will still largely hold.
There was also another theory of his that there are southern states where BJP has no presence at all. However, parties there are non NDA so about 100 odd seats saved, where BJP could just not contest and so the 450+ number holds this way too. Now with Tamil Nadu alliance, the number goes up perhaps.
The more number of seats you contest with full strength, greater chances of you winning more seats too. So, 380-400 fighting seats will definitely give a large yield especially with the Narendra Modi factor.
One Against One Scenario
1977 elections we saw a Mahagathbandhan which was a mega alliance of all opposition parties merging into one party the Janata Party. Now that, the socialists, right wing all joined in. This ensured a one against one scenarios i.e. candidates between Congress and opposition. That ensured a straight fight and less vote cutting. Janata Party won handsomely the then.
Rajiv Gandhi had a brutal majority of 400+ in 1984 after Indira Gandhi’s death. In 1989, the opposition parties collaborated and there was a 1:1 candidate ratio. This had Left, Janata Dal (led by V. P. Singh) and BJP. Rajiv Gandhi came down to 200- seats and lost power, later on.
Here, the Point is, 1:1 is possible and MGB started with that idea. However, for that to happen, not only should the top get aligned, but the alignment has to go down. Further, the alignment right up to foot soldiers and this takes time hence MGB and seat adjustments should have happened by now.
This hasn’t happened, look at ease with which BJP as it is sealing alliances everywhere. MGB is nowhere in picture.
BJP’s Edge Over Other Parties
So what we will mostly have now is an MGB led by Congress and which will be the second front and a third front.
Second front will have Congress + NCP + DMK + TDP + INLD (?) + JDS + RJD.
Third front will be parties like Mamata, Naveen Patnaik, KCR, Jagan, Mayawati, Akhilesh, AAP etc.
Second front will put up a fight in about 350-400 seats with congress having contestable seats of 150-200.
Third front between them will have about 200-230 seats where they will fight. Bhau had 231 in his book but that was before the Tamil Nadu alliances happened.
Vote blocks and why the third front?
Voters are of different categories – those that vote for their caste or religion or ideology.
There are core voters and there are floating voters. Core voters may vote on the basis of caste, religion or ideology. Floating voters will vote on the basis of last minute considerations.
There prevails another type of voter blocks as well. Those who vote for you because they don’t want one party in power or are against one party.
Congress needs Support from Majority
Congress was the predominant power for last 60 years and most of the regional parties rose to prominence opposing the Congress. Large blocks of their voters are anti congress.
When these parties ally with Congress, these vote blocks either go to the opposition or Congress but mainly the former. This is what happened in UP when Akhilesh and Congress allied, and in Bengal, where Communists aligned with Congress and lost to Mamata Banerjee.
The most recent example is Telangana, where in last assembly elections, TRS had a simple majority. In this election, Chandrababu (CBN) aligned with Congress and others and it is a Mahaghathbandhan or a MGB. Naidu was decimated as his voters went to TRS and partly to Congress. TRS came with 2/3rd majority.
Therefore, parties like TRS, Mamata, BSP, SP, Jagan or even AAP are wary of aligning with Congress because their vote base either shifts to Congress or to opposite party.
Hence the third front is emerging and will present a challenge for dethroning BJP.
The Narendra Modi Factor
Narendra Modi was relatively unknown factor in 2014, he was voted in on promise and goodwill by people who were also very fed up with UPA misrule. Even his worst critics would say that Modi has not done bad. It is akin to a man drowning. If someone saves him, he will not crib that you didn’t put me in a 5 star hotel. He will be thankful to him for saving him.
Modi “saved” a drowning country was just a hype and a lot of people recognized this from inside. But he in fact drowned the Country or there may be gaps but when people weigh him against opposition, they will be happy with him. To take a risk of throwing him out and bringing in stability is not in the minds of the people currently.
The other factor is people have got fed up of the Lutyens tyranny, a group of tiny elite, who used to dictate everything in the country. Modi was pure outsider and people had put faith in him to destroy this old order. He has partly succeeded, people will like him to finish the job.
How it will all work out
There will be 3 broad fronts with conflicting vote banks and at least 3 candidates for 1 seat in this Lok Sabha election.
Also, there will be places where all three fronts will fight, some where second and third front will fight or third and first front will fight.
This will ensure vote splitting, vote block movement and completely unpredictable outcomes which Lutyens media cannot figure out.
Many voters vote “national” in LS elections, they may have other preferences in state elections but in LS, they vote for PM and given Modi’s popularity and performance, he has an edge over others.
BJP itself is contesting 400 odd seats and NDA another 60-70. This will increase their chances of winning seats with all the factors above considered too.
BJP got 31% vote share in 2014 and alliance got 40%. They have added lot many more voters in last 4 years and govt has reached lots of people. Their target vote share is 50% but a realistic target might be about 40%. This would give the seat yield desired though this needs to be tested.
Finally – why 350 if MGB forms (no likelihood now). To go back to Telangana for example, where people saw antagonists come together, they will prefer BJP.
Considering all these factors, Bhau says – it will be Modi again to win 2019 elections.
